America’s GDP Surges 4% in Quarter 2 – Jonathan Creek Shows How The Trick Is Done

Magic sleuth Jonathan CreekMagic sleuth Jonathan Creek exposes tricksters – economic sleuth Boggart Blog exposes statisticksters

This morning the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, an agency of the Commerce department revealed Q2 GDP statistics which blew made nonesense of estimates, showing year on year growth for the second quarter at 4.0%. This was explained as the result of a surge in Inventories and Fixed Investment, while exports added only 1.23% to the GDP number. The full breakdown by component is shown below.

The BEA noted, “The Bureau emphasized that the second-quarter advance estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency. The “second” estimate for the second quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on August 28, 2014.”

Hmmmm – several notes of caution there, and let’s not forget that the corresponding figure (the headline grabber) for the first quarter said GDP had grown by 1.6% for the quarter. This was later revised to -2.9% with the long cold winter (Warmageddonists please note) blamed for the contraction.

See a detailed breakdown of figures as the BEA web site.

What does this mean for the global economy? Nothing really, the economic recovery being puffed by Obama in the USA is as illusory as the one George Osborne is raving about in the UK. And don’t let any economically illiterate idiots tell you everything would be hunky dory if Labour were in power. Remember Osborne’s recovery illusion is employing the same trickery as the Brown Balls Boom of 2001 – 2007.

The real problem is that GDP, the statistic used by most governments as a measure of their economic success, is not a meaningful measure of economic performance. It only measures the amount of money churning through the economy. So ship in a million immigrants, give them £200 a week in benefits and you have grown the economy by £200million a week. Then if you fund that by raising £100million in taxes and borrowing £100million, you have ‘grown’ GPD by £400million a week.

Simples.

Do not trust a word government (of any political party) says. It is the responsibility of the electorate to hold the buggers to account.

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