Divisions In British Society Will Destroy Brexit Says Writer From The Most Divided Society In Europe

Recently came upon an article in an online news site that ought to know better, describing how the deep and irreconcilable divisions in British society (deeper than those in France, Germany or the USA according to the author) will ensure Brexit is a disaster.

It was the most ill – informed, bigoted piece of shite I have ever read.

London Bridge Is Down
Authored by Raul Ilargi Meijer via The Automatic Earth blog,

The French election, won overnight by Emmanuel Macron, put several segments of the French population opposite one another in a pretty fierce contest. And that contest will continue. Because Macron won’t be able to lift the French economy out of its doldrums any more than Le Pen could have, or than Trump can life the US, and the new president will have the honor of presiding over a further and deepening downturn. The French political dividing line was aptly described by Simon Kuper recently:

The ultra-nationalist writer Charles Maurras believed there were “two Frances”. The one he loved was the “pays réel”, the real country: a rural France of church clocks, traditions and native people fused with their ancestral soil. Maurras loathed the “pays légal”, the legal country: the secular republic, which he thought was run by functionaries conspiring for alien interests.

 

Maurras was born in 1868 and died in 1952. But if he returned on Sunday to witness the French presidential run-off, he would instantly recognise both candidates. He would cast Emmanuel Macron as the incarnation of the “legal France” and Marine Le Pen as embodying the “real” one.

Maurras may have been a questionable character, but that description is not half bad. Once enough people in the country understand the failure of ‘legal’ France, they will want ‘real’ France back. That will be true in countries all over Europe; to a large extent it already is. Marine Le Pen summed up the key issue really well a few days ago when she said of the country post election: “France will be led by a woman, me or Mrs. Merkel.”

There is only one reason the French people would ever tolerate Germany having an outsized influence in their politics and economics: that they feel they benefit from it financially. And yes, if you put it that way, it’s already quite something that they haven’t revolted more and earlier.

The generous unemployment benefits are undoubtedly part of that. But those can’t last. And since the Germans owe their influence in Paris to the EU, it’s obvious how the French will feel they can stop that influence. And then the EU will turn out to be not a peacemaker, but the opposite.

Still, as much as France is divided, and as serious as that division is, the country is a shining beacon of unity compared to the UK, where the dividing lines are as manifold as they are laced with toxins. The snap election PM Theresa May called, in just over a month, can do nothing to resolve any of it. That means the EU can do what they want in the Brexit negotiations. Which will therefore be an unparalleled disaster for May and the UK.

The EU can and will ‘have its way’ with the UK for one simple reason: the United Kingdom is anything but United. It makes no difference what the EU does to the UK, the British won’t blame them for it. They will blame each other instead. No matter what happens these days, the British always know in advance who’s to blame, and it’s never themselves; it’s always another group of Brits.

The Tories are deeply divided between pro- and anti-Brexit forces. Labour is divided along those same lines, and adds pro- and anti-Corbyn sentiments for good measure. Other parties don’t really matter much, but they have similar dividing lines as well.

Anti-Corbyn Labour MPs have convinced themselves they know better than pro-Corbyn party members. They’ve kept claiming for so long that Corbyn is unelectable it’s become a self-fulfilling prophecy. They’ll be lucky not to face the fate of their former brethren in François Hollande’s Parti Socialiste, who ended up with just 6% of the vote in the 1st round of the French elections.

PM Theresa May called the snap election for June 8 to hide some of the divisions behind, to make them appear less relevant, or even to profit from them and grab more power. But the very fact that Brexit was voted in, already makes the election nigh irrelevant.

Whoever wins, and it looks certain to be May herself. will open themselves to being scapegoated in a big way. Which won’t keep them from seeking victory, because the loser can expect the same fate. The trenches have been dug, and deeply. Governable? Don’t count on it. It feels more like 40 years later we’re back to Johnny Rotten ‘singing’ Anarchy in the UK.

If May threatens to leave the EU ‘cold’ and trigger a ‘Hard Brexit’, she will simultaneously trigger a whole lot more, and much wider, divisions in the country (or is that countries?!), and that’s even without mentioning an entire minefield of legal, and potentially constitutional, issues. The latter especially because Britain doesn’t have an actual -written- constitution.

For Brussels, it’s easy pickings, and pick they will. This week, they casually raised the UK’s cost of leaving the EU to €100 billion, from estimates varying from €40 billion to €60 billion before. Paddy Power and its equally powerful bookie ilk soon won’t be taking any bets below, say, €150 billion. In that regard, and many others, the EU will do to the UK what it is doing to Greece.

The only way to stand up against that is to show a common front. But there will be no such thing in the Divided Kingdom, not for a long time. Everyone has their favorite scapegoat, for some it’s Nigel Farage, for others David Cameron, George Osborne, Tony Blair, Jeremy Corbyn or Theresa May. And nobody is going to leave their blame trenches. They’re the only places they feel somewhat comfortable, less scared, in.

Theresa May, if the polls are to be believed -and given the divisions we might for once-, will have to sit down and negotiate with the multi-headed Hydra that is the EU, ‘strengthened’ by a major election victory, but she will find it the ultimate Pyrrhic victory, because Brussels will have a ball playing her divided ‘nation’.

Scotland can probably easily be seduced with the carrot of EU membership, but more importantly, Juncker and his people can cast doubt on the entire Brexit vote, and they will have many interested takers.

The Brexit negotiations will take at least 2 years. But it could be 3 or 4 years, who knows? May has no power over that durationm unless she walks. She won’t. And as things are drawn out, Juncker et al have all the time and opportunities they want to tell both May and the British public that Brussels has no intention of punishing them, but will have to do so anyway.

After all, Brexit is a threat to the entire European project, and all the leaders of the 27 remaining nations, as well as the vast majority of their domestic opposition parties, are behind that project, no questions asked. And the many thousands of people working their very well-paid jobs in Brussels and Strasbourg are not too critical either.

All in all, the British need to wake up and smell the roses as long as there are any left, and before they have been replaced with less savory odors. Or they will have to seriously wonder whether the Kingdom, united or not, can outlive the Queen, aka the London Bridge.

*  *  *

“London Bridge is Down” was recently revealed as the secret UK government code for the moment the Queen dies.

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Comments:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-08/london-bridge-down

philipat's picture

I call total Bullshit on this article written by persons either with an axe to grind or a lack of understanding of UK politics. Or both.

There may be some still semi-hidden more nefarious reasons (involving election rigging in the last election) to call the Poll now but essentially the Labour Party is in complete disarray under the “leadership” of communist Corbyn. Labour don’t seem to understand that you can’t win an election in a Western Libaeral democracy from anywhere other than the centre, as Le Pen just found out. Further, May was still largely operating under the mandate of Cameron and so not fully legitimate. Blair (that well known war criminal who should be in jail, but never mind for the purposes of the point to be made here) understood this very well and “New Labour won power from the centre. “Old Labour” under Corbyn will any election from the left.

For both of these reasons, may sensed an ideal opportunity to strengthen her majority (at present very small overall) and create her own mandate. Show me any politician who, faced with the same circumstances, would not have done exactly the same?

The outcome will be an enormous Conservative majority which will allow her a stronger hand in Brexit negotiations, such as they may be as the Brussels collective have already made it abundantly clear that they have no intention to negotiate in good faith. In fact, many are now wondering why waste 2 years and not just pull out now to avoid wasting 2 years in useless negotiations whicgh are likely to end in “no deal”. British industry can accept a return to WTO trade rules either indefinitely or until the German car manufacturers force Brussels to make a trade deal. And if the City loses out, so be it. The UK economy is over-dependent on criminal finance and it would be an ideal opportunity to re-balance the economy anyway.

So May and the UK will be in a much stronger position with a resounding mandate from the British people to get us out of the clutches of the unelected megalomaniacs in Brussels (Not to mention Pedophiles and Drunkards)

Again, I call major Bullshit on this article.

 

OverTheHedge's picture

“I call total Bullshit on this article written by persons either with an axe to grind or a lack of understanding of UK politics. Or both.”

I have to agree. This doesn’t seem to reflect any facet of British society that I know about, although I am an ex-Brit, so might be out of touch.

1. Whilst Brits do like to play the blame game, they NEVER turn down an opportunity to wallop the Frogs, and the next two years are going to be an endless parade of Frogs in barrels for shooting purposes.

2. Scotland can whine and winge all it wants, they know that Europe will treat them like Greece, and they know that the UK will stop funding their profligate government. Given that the oil income is ever decreasing, it becomes more irrelevant. Finally, no new referendum until UK is out of eu, so utterly irrelevant. Do we see Scots rioting over being allowed to stay within eu? I don’t.

3. The Labour party. Enough said.

4. The lib dems weren’t even mentioned in the article, quite rightly as they are utterly irrelevant.

5. Seems to me that the Brits are actually quite united, in that the entirety of Europe is against them, backs to the wall, fight them on the beaches. If Spain tries to upset BritBot by messing with Gibraltar, all hell will break loose.

So, on balance, I believe the exact opposite of the article is the situation on the ground. Posh winebars in Knightsbridge might suggest otherwise, but London is NOT the UK.

 

Sirius Wonderblast's picture

Yup. The article is drooling nonsense. Unless its’ author thinks that every single person will at all times be in accord then it will always be possible to point to differences of opinion. Living here, I absolutely do not sense – outside perhaps of Londonistan and from the SNP (as distinct from Scots) – any dissent over the Brexit.

London is so different from the rest of the UK that in may ways, it is like somewhere else. Some areas more than others, mind you – Tower Hamlets, for instance.

May has astutely taken the opportunity to increase her majority, which looks like a shoo-in – while Labour and UKIP both are rudderless. I il say I admire Corbyn’s adherence to conviction politics, and the Labour membership’s support of him and his/their principles. It highlights the bankruptcy fo the parliamentary Labour Party and the slimeball politicians that make it up. Sadly, it is not enough to gain traction in an election in what is stil a largely somatised country. While folk can get BMWs and Audi’s on easy terms, who wants to fight for workers (or anyone else’s) rights?

Fact is, the EU has long been disliked, since its germ as the EEC really. Tampering with fairly minor matters of weigths and measures, however, was overtaken by the bombast and federalism, and feathering of nests, of the EU “elite” and their handsomely paid minions. Now we get the threats, coercion and general unmasking of the beast per Drunckard’s recent bile, which serve to prove the right choice was made. Now, threaten Britons with whatever dreamed up impositions, call them threats, call tem attacks, and you will see increased unity among us. At the same time, you will see – as has been the case – the division between those such a Cluncker at the Commission, and Tusk at the Council. Perhaps Tusk, federalist as he is, seems more hope for the EU if it can trade successfully with us than if not, which would seem wise.

Once the UK is out of the EU, the impetus for Scottish break away is liley to wither rather rapidly. Whither then Sturgeon’s pension?

What did anyone really expect after the way the PIIGS were treated? Now try it on with one of the big boys, you bunch of f*cking pussies. See how far you get.

The Islington set, it’s pseudo-intellectual fans in the BBC and a diminishing number of Snowflake-esque Remainers may cry their eyes out about it, but get around the country and you will find a good deal of unity and a rather visceral dislike of the EU and the people like Wancker who epitomise it.

 

Thus far May has it right. Call the election while the EU struts around like a pigeon (all Obama-style), then when it matters just don’t take the blindest bit of notce of their nonsense (Euro100bn demand included).

 

EddieLomax's picture

Got to agree, this is the most illinformed piece of guff I’ve read for a long time.

“For Brussels, it’s easy pickings, and pick they will. This week, they casually raised the UK’s cost of leaving the EU to €100 billion, from estimates varying from €40 billion to €60 billion before.”

News just in, I’m hearby raising the charge for stupidity from £400 to £8000, it is apparently easy to get money off you if you truly believe we will pay anything at all?

“Paddy Power and its equally powerful bookie ilk soon won’t be taking any bets below, say, €150 billion. In that regard, and many others, the EU will do to the UK what it is doing to Greece.”

Lol.  Seriously, I wouldn’t take any bets below €150 billion either, afterall, why would I want to lose money when making a bet?

The conservative party has for a long time had a very large split in it.  It started in 1972 when a lot of them thought they were joining a economic agreement or getting leverage over Europe etc etc, a few realized exactly what it was.  And the split has been getting more painful since with the problem being its much harder to overturn the status quo than continue with it.

If the vote last year had been to JOIN the EU then I reckon it would have been 30 to 70% against, and that is being optimistic.

 

The real news is France has commited to being behind the EU tariff wall when the UK leaves the EU, that means US and other companies can sell a product at between 12% to 40% cheaper if their cost of production is cheaper and the UK has a free trade agreement with them.

For us a free trade agreement with a country like the US is a no-brainer, for the US its a unique opportunity to take over EU market share.  When Le Pen gets in in 2022 it is going to be very hard for French companies to get back in, but the economic pain will really be something to behold, maybe the French will lead the way in sweeping the Muslims out, just the lower security costs would be a compelling economic advantage.

 

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